First-time homebuyers’ shrinking presence — what it means for real estate agents

The share of first-time homebuyers has fallen to 21% of all transactions — the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) began tracking the data in 1981.

For “If there are fewer first-time homebuyers, it will be harder for new agents to enter the real estate business,” she said. “Many new agents cut their teeth on first-time homebuyers. It’s not unusual for someone to meet a buyer at an open house and start working with them.

“Alternatively, many first-time homebuyers often reach out on Zillow and begin working with [the] agent [who] shows up to show them the house, which is often a younger agent who is working the leads of a bigger team that is paying for those leads.”

In Texas, agents are seeing a similar dynamic play out.

“It definitely changes things,” said Lauren Kennemer, a Compass Realtor based in Austin. “For a long time, first-time buyers were how a lot of agents built their business and future pipeline. With fewer of them in the market, there’s been a shift toward really leaning into repeat clients and referrals.

“So, instead of focusing on volume, agents are focusing more on relationships — staying in touch, being a resource and thinking long-term.”

Not every market is feeling the shift equally. In Cottage Grove, Meanwhile, older millennials (roughly ages 36–45) — now the highest-earning buyer cohort at a median income of $132,700 — are purchasing larger homes and leveraging accumulated equity rather than entering the market for the first time, according to those surveyed by NAR.

The aging of the baby boom generation has not produced the flood of inventory many analysts anticipated.

“Baby boomers own a disproportionate share of U.S. housing and, for now, they’re largely staying put,” said Ginger Wilcox, president of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate. “The long-anticipated wave of listings has not materialized because many homeowners are remaining in their homes longer than expected, even as lifestyle and care needs evolve. That reality continues to constrain inventory.”

Fox offered additional perspective on what happens when boomers do sell.

“Many are not repurchasing replacement homes,” he said. “Accordingly, owners exiting the market [not repurchasing] may begin to lower demand if they are not replaced by first-time buyers or buyers re-entering home ownership after an ownership break [due to] credit issues, family changes or strategic financial breaks.”

In San Francisco, Krishnan said many boomers are choosing to stay despite having more space than they need.

“I’ve not personally seen a ton of the baby boomers selling,” Krishnan said. “Many sellers that I speak to in this demographic have low interest rates on their homes and love living in San Francisco. Even though