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Weekly pending home sales show yearly growth as mortgage rat

Inventory rose to 743,006, new listings hit 77,919 and pending sales rose to 73,241 as rates neared 6.25%.

A ton of housing data snapped back last week as it should have from the holiday-impacted week before: active inventory, new listings and weekly pending home sales all grew above trend. This usually happens when we have a major holiday the previous week that slows data, but Mortgage purchase application data

Purchase application data is a forward-looking indicator: growth here leads home sales by roughly 30-90 days. Last week, we saw a 1% week-to-week decline and a 3% year-over-year decline. Higher mortgage rates have impacted this data line, and we aren’t back below 6.25% yet, but this week’s data should be interesting as rates have fallen closer to 6.25%.

For purchase apps, what I really value is at least 12-14 weeks of positive week-to-week data. If we can get that positive week-to-week data to go with year-over-year growth, then we have something cooking. For 2026, we are basically flat on the week-to-week data, while showing positive year-over-year data up until rates rose.

Here’s 2026 so far:

6 positive week-over-week prints
7 negative week-to-week prints
1 flat week-to-week print
7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
12 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
2 negative year-over-year print

Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%

The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%

We recently saw a positive move in the 10-year yield and mortgage rates as the bond market has been trying to get ahead of any Iran war deal. Both times we have heard about an end to the Iran conflict, the 10-year yield has gotten back toward 4.24%. Mortgage spreads are also improving, so mortgage rates are closer toward 6.25% now.

We shall see what Monday and this week brings, but for the entire year, we have still stayed within the range I believe we should stay in for 2026 as rates have ranged between 5.98% and 6.64%.

Mortgage spreads

Mortgage spreads remain a Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week, spreads closed at 2%, down from 2.05% the week before.

However, I wanted to compare last week’s rates to the worst levels of the spreads over the past three years, given the 10-year yield at its current level.

If we had the worst mortgage spread levels of 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.39% today, not 6.29%.
If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.02% today.
If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates would be 6.83% today.