What to look for in Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting

Today, as I write this article, oil prices are at $75.80, which is a big deal because tomorrow the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. For many months, Federal Reserve hawks have said that the Iran conflict was a major reason they’ve been more hawkish, as energy inflation can make the current inflation data much worse going forward. Warsh has said that the housing market needs help, and today’s Warsh is going to try to make the Federal Reserve quieter, probably killing the Fed dot plot and maybe making a rule that Fed governors can’t talk about their personal monetary policy choices at events, which I think will be very hard in this day and age of social media. But since 65%-75% of where mortgage rates and the 10-year yield can go still depends on Fed policy, Warsh needs to try to convince the Fed governors to wait before talking about another rate-hike cycle.

Conclusion

2026 has had a lot of crazy events, and it’s not even the halfway point, but the housing market has held up well under the circumstances. As our